Angola’s Oil Production Trends and Forecast

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Angola is located on the western Atlantic Coast of Southern Africa. Angola has been a significant player in the African oil market. Despite the complex interplay of factors influencing oil production worldwide, examining Angola’s data can yield actionable insights for stakeholders. In this analysis, we will dissect the salient trends in Angola’s oil production.

 Historical and Current Oil Production Trends.

Production Volume

Angola’s oil production ramped up significantly after the end of the civil war in 2002.. Historical oil production in Angola: Angola was producing over 1 million bpd by the mid-2000s., and this volume peaked around 2008 at approximately 2 million bpd.

– Historical Production:

According to data from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and OPEC sources, between 2000 and 2010, Angola saw a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in oil production of around 8.9%. This surge was driven largely by developments in offshore oil fields, particularly around the Cabinda enclave and the deepwater blocks.

– Current Production:
Angola’s oil production stabilized around 1.2 million bpd as of 2021, but it has been around 1.1 million bpd since then and is expected to maintain this level through at least 2027.

Production Forecast

Predictive models utilize a variety of data points, including existing field depletion rates, planned new projects, and investments in exploration.

– Short-term Outlook (Next 1-3 Years):

Based on project timelines and existing field data, production is expected to be around 1.1million bpd. Two major factors influencing this include the commissioning of the Kaombo deepwater project and the continued production from mature fields and overall industry trends influence production

– Medium-term Outlook (Next 4-7 Years):

The medium-term forecasts suggest a modest decline in production unless new explorations prove fruitful. Projections place production at 1.1million bpd, factoring in new fields such as the Block 15/06 developments and the life extension of existing fields through enhanced recovery techniques.

Reserves and Potential.

Proven Reserves

Angola’s proven oil reserves are approximately 2.516 billion barrels according to the latest estimates from 2022.., representing around 0.5% of the global total.

– Reserve Life Index (RLI):

Given the current production rate of about 1.3 million bpd, the Reserve Life Index (RLI), a measure of how long reserves would last at the existing production rate, is approximately 20 years. This RLI suggests an urgent need for new discoveries and enhanced recovery.

Hussein Boffu runs a consultancy helping entrepreneurs achieve their goals through business planning and consultancy support. Would you like to reach out to him? Contact him via email at hussein.boffu@tanzaniapetroleum.com or by calling, texting, or WhatsApp at +255(0)655376543.