Tag Archive for: energy

Oil prices ‘could fall further’

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Oil prices may have further to fall despite stabilising in
recent months – and even beginning to rise modestly – because of a
massive oversupply the International Energy Agency (IEA) has said.
The IEA said lower oil prices were likely to last well into 2016.
The agency added the world oil market was unable to absorb the huge volumes of oil now being produced.
It follows the massive drop in prices which started last summer.
The price of Brent crude fell sharply last year from $115 a barrel in June to $45 a barrel in January.
The current price of Brent crude is $59 a barrel.
The fall in prices has led oil firms to cut back investment in
exploration, while North Sea oil has come under significant pressure.
All seven major global oil firms have also reported a year-on-year declines as a result of lower oil prices.
‘Oversupply’
Only last month the Office for Budget Responsibility
(OBR) forecast North Sea oil and gas revenues would fall to below 0.1%
of GDP over the coming decades.
It said the tax take from North Sea oil and gas had already fallen by 80% in the last three years.
“The oil market was massively oversupplied in the second quarter of
2015, and remains so today,” the IEA said in its monthly report.
“It
is equally clear that the market’s ability to absorb that oversupply is
unlikely to last. Onshore storage space is limited,” it said, adding:
“Something has to give.”
“The bottom of the market may still be ahead.”
Core members of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries
(Opec) have continued to produce the same level of oil in the past year
despite falling oil prices in an attempt to regain market share.
US
oil production has also soared in recent years, as fracking – or the
process of extracting oil from shale rock by injecting fluids into the
ground – has revolutionised oil production in the country.
Opec’s response to the fall in prices was to refuse to cut
production. Many Opec nations are able to tolerate a lower oil price
despite losing money.
Record
For other nations such as Russia the lower oil price is doing substantial harm to economic growth
Last
month, official figures showed the impact of international sanctions
over Russia’s continued involvement in east Ukraine and the lower oil
prices had led to a 4.9% contraction in the Russian economy in the 12
months to May.
The IEA said Opec crude oil production rose 340,000 barrels per day
(BPD) in June to 31.7 million barrel as day, a three-year high, led by
record output from Iraq, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
It said Saudi Arabian crude oil supply rose 50,000 barrels per day to
a record high of 10.35 million BPD in June, while Iraq crude oil output
surged 270,000 BPD in June to its highest-ever rate of 4.12 million
BPD.
However, increases in production have come just as demand for
oil in economies across the world from Europe to China – the world’s
second-largest consumer of oil – has slowed.
The IEA trimmed its forecast for global oil demand growth this year
slightly to 1.39 million BPD and said it expected global demand growth
to slow to 1.2 million BPD in 2016.
The agency added non-Opec supply growth was expected to grind to a
halt in 2016 as lower oil prices and spending cuts take their toll. It
forecast zero growth in non-Opec oil supply in 2016 after an increase of
1 million bpd in 2015.

New petroleum producers survey policy options in wake of oil price slump

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Countries seeking to develop newly-discovered petroleum resources are
facing a fall in global oil prices, with competition from the ‘shale
gas revolution’ in the United States, as well as renewable energy
sources.
At a New Petroleum Producers Discussion Group in Tanzania, organised
by Chatham House and co-sponsored by the Commonwealth Secretariat,
authorities from more than 20 countries met this week to find solutions
to these and other shared challenges.
The four-day forum from 30 June to 2 July, at which a set of Guidelines on Good Governance for Emerging Oil and Gas Producers was
released, was attended by government ministries and national oil
companies from Belize, Guyana, Kenya, Mauritius, Mozambique, Jamaica,
Seychelles, Trinidad and Tobago, Tanzania, and Uganda, among other
nations.
“In the midst of the oil crisis there is less capital available for
investment,” commented Michael Mwanda, Chairman of the Tanzania
Petroleum Development Corporation, which hosted the meeting in Dar es
Salaam. “Some projects which were pegged on a high oil price are now
becoming uneconomic and difficult to operate.
“We need to learn from each other and share experiences on how to
reduce costs, operate efficiently and become more competitive,” Mr
Mwanda said.
Addressing the forum, Ekpen Omonbude, Natural Resources Adviser at
the Commonwealth Secretariat, remarked: “This price decline has
necessitated a critical look at strategies to manage petroleum
resources, from development programmes to responsible wealth management,
to ensure benefits for future generations.”
Dr Omonbude stressed that while the slump in the price of oil – from
over US$100 a barrel in 2014 to around US$60 today – presents immediate
challenges, these can be mitigated through the adoption of flexible
fiscal regimes, increased economic diversification, the development of
good governance regimes and revenue transparency.
“Our mission is clear – to help position our member countries to
realise the potential of their resource wealth as a driver of
sustainable development and economic prosperity,” the Commonwealth
representative said.
The New Petroleum Producers Discussion Group was
established in 2012 to help countries think critically about policy
options available either during the first steps of exploration and
development or when restructuring governance arrangements. Options
include setting up regulatory institutions and drafting regulations and
laws that encourage investment, while balancing the needs of society and
environmental protections.
This week marked the first time the discussion group has met outside
London and included a final-day national seminar for representatives of
Tanzania’s oil and gas sector. Co-sponsors of the initiative include the
Natural Resource Governance Institute and the Africa Governance
Initiative.
The Guidelines for Good Governance in Emerging Oil and Gas Producers,
a synthesis of proposals put forward at each discussion group, seek to
guide national authorities to pursue policies which follow good
practices, but which also respond to national contexts.
Dr Valérie Marcel, Associate Fellow at Chatham House, principal
author of the guidelines, said: “The emergence of shale oil and new
renewable technologies offer opportunities and challenges. How the
emerging producer is affected and will respond is what we have been
debating. One of the main issues is how to adjust to a low price
environment, asking what impact is this going to have on licensing terms
and the ambitions of national oil companies.”
She added: “Emerging producers are thirsty to learn from their peers
about what has worked elsewhere and what advice to give. More
established producers want to know whether they are doing things right
and what pitfalls they should avoid. This is a really important learning
process.”
During the forum, participants exchanged experiences on how to
attract investment while preserving long-term national interests,
managing expenditure plans as well as ways to guard against abuses and
fraud in contracts and licensing. Training sessions focused on involving
local suppliers in supply chains, the design of fiscal systems and new
information tools.

Eddy Belle, Chief Executive of PetroSeychelles, the national oil
company of Seychelles, said: “[Petroleum] is a very dynamic business –
there is new technology coming in and new ways of doing things. What
Chatham House is doing with the help of the Commonwealth Secretariat is
getting people together so you have the chance to learn from the
mistakes as well as the successes of others.”
Bashir Hangi, Communications Officer for Uganda’s Petroleum
Exploration and Production Department, commented: “Such a forum helps us
a lot as emerging producers. We peer review ourselves, and our people
go home with a lot of advice. One piece of advice I would share is that
you cannot ignore your stakeholders – civil society, academia and
communities where there are operations. They should not be taken for
granted; they should be brought on board and be involved in the
management of the resource.”
Anthony Paul, Managing Director of the Association of Caribbean
Energy Specialists, said: “Oil and gas resources give opportunities to
deepen industrialisaton, providing power and access to better lighting,
heating and cooking facilities as well as petrochemicals and
fertilisers. There are also benefits from developing the services
industry. What strikes me most is that all countries want the same
thing: they want the resource to benefit their citizens.”

Orca contracts shallow-water rig for Songo Songo offshore Tanzania

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DAR ES SALAAM, Tanzania – Orca Exploration Group has started the first phase of the Songo Songo development program offshore Tanzania.

This follows World Bank’s approval for International Finance Corp.’s (IFC) investment.

Orca has entered into a drilling contract with Paragon Offshore for
the use of its M826 mobile drilling workover rig and associated services
for the offshore phase of the Songo Songo gas field program.

The rig can operate in the shallow water operating environment around
Songo Songo Island, which Orca describes as “somewhat unique.” 
However, the company still needs to obtain certain regulatory and
contractual approvals related to certain aspects of the development
program.

Drilling should start between Aug. 1 and Sept. 21. The contract has a minimum 90-day duration.

Operations will likely include workovers (removal and replacement of
production tubing strings) on the existing SS‑5, SS-7 and SS-9 wells,
and drilling of one new well, SS-J. Orca has the option to drill a
further two wells, pending the outcome of the workovers.