TANZANIA stands at a pivotal moment, balancing its vast energy wealth with the global shift toward cleaner fuels. With over 57 trillion cubic feet of liquefied natural gas (LNG), the country holds Africa’s sixth-largest reserves.
Its flagship initiative, a $42 billion liquefied natural gas project in Lindi, aims to export up to 10 million tonnes annually, positioning Tanzania as a key player in the global energy market. The stakes are high, as success could transform the economy, create jobs, and elevate the country’s influence in East Africa.
Negotiations with energy giants Shell and Equinor have regained traction after years of delays, with officials targeting a final investment decision by this year (2025). If successful, exports could begin by 2030. Yet the world around Tanzania is changing rapidly, and the country must navigate both global and domestic pressures to secure its place in the market.
A World in Flux.
Global LNG demand reached 407 million tonnes in 2023, with Shell forecasting a 60 percent surge by 2040. Europe, grappling with the loss of Russian gas, and Asian powerhouses such as China and India are driving this growth.
However, challenges loom. Financing LNG projects is increasingly complex as banks and investors face pressure to retreat from fossil fuels. Short-term supply contracts add uncertainty, and climate activists argue that gas, though cleaner than coal or oil, perpetuates fossil fuel reliance.
“LNG has a window of opportunity,” said Dr Mohamed Mahgoub, a regional oil and gas expert. “It burns cleaner than coal or oil and complements renewables, which rely on weather. No immediate threats will diminish LNG’s global importance.”
This global context underlines why Tanzania cannot afford delays. The Lindi project represents not just an economic opportunity, but also a race against time to secure a competitive edge in a fast-evolving energy market.
Tanzania’s Ambition.
At the heart of this ambition is the Lindi LNG project, valued at $42 billion and led by Shell, Equinor, ExxonMobil, and other partners. It could produce 10 million tonnes annually for export to Europe and Asia. Yet progress has been slow. Policy disputes, financing hurdles, and shifting government priorities have delayed the project for more than a decade. Only in recent years have negotiations been revived, with this year set as the target for a final decision.
A senior official at the Tanzania Petroleum Development Corporation (TPDC), speaking anonymously, stressed the urgency saying: “Every delay costs revenue, jobs, and development. Our industries need energy. Without LNG, we risk unstable domestic power. The question is whether gas will only serve exports or also fuel power plants, petrochemical industries, and innovative uses such as compressed natural gas for transport.”
The stakes extend beyond economics. How Tanzania leverages its gas resources will shape industrial development, energy security, and regional influence for decades.
Regional and Global Competition.
Tanzania faces stiff competition. Mozambique, despite security challenges in Cabo Delgado, is already exporting LNG to Europe. Globally, the United States and Qatar dominate, with Qatar Energy regarded as the financial titan of LNG. “Tanzania cannot afford to hesitate,” Dr Mahgoub warned. “If Shell and Equinor waver, the government should seek partners like Qatar Energy. Delays will erode the project’s value and Tanzania’s regional influence.”
This highlights the delicate balance between speed and strategy. Acting too slowly risks losing out, while hasty decisions without proper planning could endanger long-term benefits.
Opportunities and Risks.
The risks are clear. Global demand could peak earlier than anticipated, and financing may falter as international lenders shy away from fossil fuel projects. Domestically, citizens may grow restless if the benefits are slow to materialize.
Yet opportunities are equally compelling. Supplying neighbors such as Kenya, Uganda, Zambia, and the Democratic Republic of Congo could ensure stable regional demand. Tanzania’s Indian Ocean coastline positions it ideally to serve Asia’s growing markets, particularly China and India.
“Geography favors Tanzania,” noted an international energy consultant. “If the Lindi plant launches, LNG can be shipped efficiently to Asia and Europe, boosting financier confidence.”
Financial markets analyst Richard Michael from London added a cautionary note saying: “Tanzania is vying for a spot on the LNG map, but time is critical. Global capital flows to proven markets like Qatar and the United States. Investors question whether Lindi can recover costs before 2040. Uncertainty could divert funds elsewhere.”
On the other hand, Dr Ashura Abdullah, a local economist, offered a counterpoint saying: “Asia, especially India and China, will rely on LNG for decades. While Europe may cut gas use, Asia drives growth. Tanzania’s challenge isn’t the market but managing revenues effectively.” She added, “Mozambique faced setbacks yet progressed. Tanzania may be late, but careful management can still deliver results.”
The People’s Perspective.
For Tanzanians, global market dynamics often feel distant. Their focus is local impact. “We hear about billions in gas, but power cuts and high fuel prices persist,” said Yasinta Mwajabala, a Dar es Salaam shop owner. “Will this gas make electricity affordable and reliable? If not, what is the point?”
Her sentiment is widely shared. Abdul Juma, a taxi driver in the city, added: “Every day we struggle with fuel costs and rising electricity bills. This gas should benefit us, not just foreign companies. We need jobs, cheaper energy, and industries that help our families.”
Together, their voices reflect the urgent desire among ordinary Tanzanians to see the nation’s energy wealth translate into tangible improvements in daily life.
A Closing Window.
Tanzania’s gas story is about more than energy; it is about timing, strategy, and foresight. LNG retains momentum, but the window is narrowing. Countries that move decisively will reap rewards, while those that hesitate may be left with untapped reserves and unfulfilled promises.
“Tanzania must act now,” urged Dr Mahgoub. “Each year of delay diminishes returns. The people are ready; the country aspires to be an energy hub. The question is whether leaders and investors can match that ambition.”
For Tanzania, the path is clear: move quickly, secure markets, and deliver domestic benefits. Failure to act risks watching the global energy transition pass by, leaving its vast potential buried and its promises unfulfilled.
